Guinea-Bissau - Future trends

It is very difficult to have economic progress without a platform of political stability. Given the fragile peace in Guinea-Bissau, both domestic and foreign investors hesitate to risk their resources. The damage of the civil war and the continuing role of the military have been major concerns for international donors and the business community. Until confidence is restored, Guinea-Bissau cannot expect to make progress in improving the living standards of its people.

On the positive side, the general election was held without major incident and the opposition party gained the majority. It is expected that the former ruling party will continue to be a minority in the Assembly and that the military junta will struggle to reposition itself in the new political landscape. (The political parties have refused to endorse the military junta's proposed pact, which would allow it to participate in government for 10 more years.) Internal security could be unstable as demobilization of the armed forces begins. With the resumption of aid, the economy is expected to continue to recover, but long-term progress will depend on political stability and commitment to economic reform programs.